tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.comments2023-09-09T09:26:22.175-04:00Andrew Samwick's BlogAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13514024573333057559noreply@blogger.comBlogger2147125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-52206598492845831722021-04-07T20:18:51.812-04:002021-04-07T20:18:51.812-04:00Curious on your thoughts on Puerto Rico now that t...Curious on your thoughts on Puerto Rico now that they have voted for statehood and would be the 31st largest state in the country, just ahead of Iowa with 3.19M people. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06168714639974800229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-1351737567101405932018-10-02T11:31:43.137-04:002018-10-02T11:31:43.137-04:00Given government accounting, deficits once meant h...Given government accounting, deficits once meant high investment, with war being an investment, seeking to add capital assets, or protect assets from capture by competitors. Hoover and FDR borrowed to build assets, taking over from States that balanced budgets but borrowed to fund building capital assets, all reached credit limits.<br /><br />Since 1980, the GOP ran deficits to fund consumption, while cutting taxes AND INVESTMENTS.<br /><br />Trump promised investments and tax cuts, but without any borrowing to pay for investments, other than more tax cuts to those doing the investment. No one can figure out how to have tax cuts be big enough for corporations paying no taxes to get them to pay for investments, so, the decades of underinvestment continues.<br /><br />So, what we have is the visible deficit to fund consumption plus the hidden deficit in investment.<br /><br />Part of the public investment deficit is funded privately by real estate developers, but they pay for it with higher real estate prices and higher rents.<br /><br />Cutting taxes or not hiking them, e.g. gas tax, is a deficit that causes homelessness, but the lost productivity is not quantified and added to the Federal deficit, for example.<br /><br />The cost of building housing is unchanged in 70 years. Ignoring the monopoly pricing of accessible by transportation landed, the housing is just as affordable today to build for the working class.<br /><br />California has lots of land, but you can't get to it. A century ago, big cities built subways and elevateds to enable lots of new single family housing, row houses and detached. But such investments eliminates capital scarcity, causing price cuts, wealth destruction. Imagine Elon boring Hyperloop to vacant land for workers, reducing housing demand, million dollar houses then fall to $500,000. Detroit housing fell quickly because highways provided access to the same size lots with only a few minutes more commute time.<br />mulphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14149487211960071193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-18825188857987042942018-10-02T02:48:54.186-04:002018-10-02T02:48:54.186-04:00I think in general I agree with this post.
But t...I think in general I agree with this post.<br /><br /> But the recent experience with quantitative easing does raise questions. <br /><br /> In Japan, of course, the Bank of Japan has purchased 45% of sovereigns outstanding and yet they still do not have inflation to speak of. I hate to say it, but it appears that Japan has monetized its debt without inflationary consequence, in fact perhaps saving the economy from a deflationary recession.<br /><br /> I see no reason to shrink the Fed's balance sheet now, although that seems to be a sacralized goal. <br /><br /> Going forward, can the Fed simply indulge in QE and reduce the national debt to make up for those years that it is too high? Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-83349952533946259562018-09-30T11:57:28.434-04:002018-09-30T11:57:28.434-04:00Agreed, all of which would strengthen the argument...Agreed, all of which would strengthen the argument that there is no value to the article in <i>Bloomberg</i>.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13514024573333057559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-72788951695021033512018-09-27T12:00:04.540-04:002018-09-27T12:00:04.540-04:00Yup. Per GrueBleen, it seems the study has invalid...Yup. Per GrueBleen, it seems the study has invalid data to begin with.I Will Never Accept The Terms of Servicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422355923256894207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-19982980925471728192018-09-27T11:15:31.527-04:002018-09-27T11:15:31.527-04:00The texting, social media and watching streaming a...The texting, social media and watching streaming are most likely done while pursuing other activities.<br /><br />The more "exclusive" activities are student stuff (6,6 hours) + employment stuff (5,1 hours) + socializing (4 hours) = 15,7 hours. It leaves 8,3 hours for hygiene, eating, etc. And that exclusivity is probably not complete: I see alot of student workers studying and texting during work hours in the office once they've completed their tasks for the day.<br /><br />If that is the case, we can doubt the results of the survey, if it does not account for multi- tasking.YoungUnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-35331118473100986492018-09-26T18:52:56.472-04:002018-09-26T18:52:56.472-04:00Umm, let me see: 6.6 hours (student stuff) + 5.1 ...Umm, let me see: 6.6 hours (student stuff) + 5.1 hours (employment stuff) + 11 hours (screens and 'socialising') = 22.7 hours per day. Which I guess leaves all of 1.3 hours per day for everything else, like: travelling, hygiene and sanitation, eating (unless that's all accounted for in 'socialising'). Where does 'sleeping' fit in ? Or is that all somehow fitted in during the weekend and public holidays ?<br /><br />But then, it's all just "Fake news" nowadays, isn't it.GrueBleennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-19594691718365349282017-04-12T08:12:27.626-04:002017-04-12T08:12:27.626-04:00But passengers have much less information about th...But passengers have much less information about their preferences when they buy their tickets. They may not know whether they have a meeting the next day, whether they will be sick, whether they can't take another day with their in-laws, etc. Yes, they could set a default at purchase time and adjust it later, but that seems like it would be administratively difficult. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-49214352423395382362017-01-19T21:35:54.692-05:002017-01-19T21:35:54.692-05:00The Heritage does cut entitlement programs and Med...The Heritage does cut entitlement programs and Medicaid significantly. ROM the report:<br /><br />Medicaid: No details. There will be a spending cap, and all mandatory spending will somehow be cut to fit.<br /><br />Medicare: Increase eligibility age, add a "temporary" premium for Part A, increase premiums for Parts B and D, phase out subsidies for seniors with "significant" income, "reform" cost-sharing arrangements, transition to vouchers premium support starting in 2021.<br /><br />Domestic Discretionary: Spending cap.<br /><br />Social Security: Increase retirement age, index retirement age so it keeps going up, reduce benefits by adopting chained CPI for inflation adjustments, and "transition the payment to a flat, anti-poverty benefit focused on individuals who need it most," whatever that means.<br /><br />No miracles available. Big cuts hit either defense or entitlements.wjshackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17695711544645338195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-60444611621368945902017-01-05T17:48:58.568-05:002017-01-05T17:48:58.568-05:00Well done, Andrew. This was and is very helpful r...Well done, Andrew. This was and is very helpful research.TJ Kanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04686147880135255030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-59369947255649298352016-11-09T11:21:56.188-05:002016-11-09T11:21:56.188-05:00Thanks Andy--I can only hope you are right .A good...Thanks Andy--I can only hope you are right .A good place to start to find out what is going on is Kathy Cramer's great book, The Politics of Resentment http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo22879533.html <br /><br />Tim Smeedinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10887699548645397629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-68728568106114228382016-01-18T18:19:33.623-05:002016-01-18T18:19:33.623-05:00Arguably donations should also be counted as '...Arguably donations should also be counted as 'income'. The gift of a library with the donor's name prominently displayed has no charitable function if the poor but able student cannot access the books therein because he cannot afford entry. Currently, the primary purpose served by such gifts is the burnishing of the donor's ego.<br /><br />Further the suggestion that this proposed law applies to $1bn and up endowments is flawed and possibly easily manipulated. An objective approach would require that a stated percentage of the endowment be disbursed annually for tuition, regardless of the endowment's size.Thomasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-33608419480383392132016-01-16T16:14:28.310-05:002016-01-16T16:14:28.310-05:00Another question is what do they mean by Income? ...Another question is what do they mean by Income? Is this the annual gain in value (which is mostly non-cash) or only the the cash on securities with a current yield. If the later it might not be meaningful and if the former it could have serious repercussions for the management of (and return on) the endowments assuming the intent is to increase the payout rate and not just redirect the existing level of endowment distributions. Roger Vincentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-50141724342544406482015-12-03T01:26:43.537-05:002015-12-03T01:26:43.537-05:00Bernie Sanders is proposing a $1 trillion infrastr...Bernie Sanders is proposing a $1 trillion infrastructure plan over five years.<br /><br />http://www.budget.senate.gov/democratic/public/index.cfm/2015/1/investing-in-infrastructure-will-support-13-million-jobs<br /><br />Bernie Sanders campaign cited a Joint Committee on Taxation estimate for Sanders’s Corporate Tax Dodging Prevention Act, which would raise more than $113 billion over the next decade, as well as an $900 billion estimate in the tax lawyer’s letter for the cost of the “tax expenditure” that allows U.S. corporations to defer paying U.S. tax on their foreign earnings until that income is repatriated.<br /><br />http://www.scribd.com/doc/289668329/JCT-Partial-Revenue-Estimate-Corporate-Tax-Dodging-Prevention-Act-3<br /><br />Bernie's plan will create as many as 13 million jobs. This number is derived from a White House Council of Economic Advisers estimate that every $1 billion in federal highway and transit investment would support 13,000 jobs for one year.<br /><br />http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/otps/pubs/impacts/<br /><br />The Washington Post: "Bernie Sanders can make a credible case that he can fund his $1 trillion infrastructure program over a 10 year period by taxing the profits of U.S. corporations now held in low-tax tax havens — and that such a spending plan could result in 13 million jobs."<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/16/bernie-sanderss-claims-about-his-1-trillion-infrastructure-plan/Bud Meyershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02065020063363023395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-44070262787640157982015-12-02T19:40:31.771-05:002015-12-02T19:40:31.771-05:00as a liberal, I'm torn
on the one hand, I'...as a liberal, I'm torn<br />on the one hand, I'm told by the economists that infrastructure is a good way to spend money, and a good way to create jobs<br /><br />on the other hand, as an environmentalist, I suspect that infrastructure spending is dog whistle for more asphalt and gas guzzling SUVs<br /><br />I come down on the green side: I'm going to urge my congressional delegation to vote no on any plan that, in the transit sector, is not 70% mass transit, and in the energy sector, not 70% something that looks like renewable green energySoccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10745967553131454562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-46682637866063487852015-12-02T08:00:41.688-05:002015-12-02T08:00:41.688-05:00Very good points.
You are right that the Clinton p...Very good points.<br />You are right that the Clinton proposal is too small, but media and politicians are treating it as a bank buster. :(<br />She is also proposing an infrastructure bank, so maybe that good idea will catch on.bakhohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472764185459425186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-48758171135407904962015-10-19T08:25:21.693-04:002015-10-19T08:25:21.693-04:00These are nice linkages, like matching cash flows ...These are nice linkages, like matching cash flows or duration matching a portfolio of risk. Similar should have been in place in the mortgage biz. In fact, an idea percolates up, that it may be these mismatched payments/benefits situations that invite the fraudsters, as news continually indicates in the areas you mention. <br /><br />John<br /><br />johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01628063779348336042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-47653553006300984602014-05-15T10:39:18.572-04:002014-05-15T10:39:18.572-04:00Of single mothers, 36.8% have never been married a...Of single mothers, 36.8% have never been married and only 1.1% were widowed. I suspect while your sentiment is a good one, the reality is benefits for a widowed woman are not going to make a dent in the larger pool of struggling moms. There are sadly Dads who disappear, are unstable due to drug or alcohol dependency, don't intend to support their children and can not support their children. I feel sure that is more than 1.1 percent. Suzannenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-70815217101684181772013-12-07T07:30:12.236-05:002013-12-07T07:30:12.236-05:00You could say the same for workers as bond holders...You could say the same for workers as bond holders--why did they accept deferred compensation when they knew the plan was underfunded and the promises being made meant their compensation was greater than they could get in the private sector, suggesting it was unsustainable? Everyone loves a Ponzi scheme until it collapses, and everyone involved has their hand dirty including the workers. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941088627708060748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-24020070164049277952013-12-05T21:59:29.372-05:002013-12-05T21:59:29.372-05:00If I recall, property tax rates are already very h...If I recall, property tax rates are already very high in Detroit. Invisible Handhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02680372478096503049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-37920968227781091732013-12-04T14:53:41.346-05:002013-12-04T14:53:41.346-05:00Let me know when the riots in the streets commence...Let me know when the riots in the streets commence.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04307334146507704545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-5817698435332214182013-09-24T13:36:25.258-04:002013-09-24T13:36:25.258-04:00I agree the title is extreme link-bait, but am I t...I agree the title is extreme link-bait, but am I the only one who sees common ground between this post and the earlier one on the crumbling of the American dream? That post cited a past when well-off families sent their kids to the same schools as working class families and the difference it made in one person's life. This post says do something about it. Yes caling parents who don't send their kids to public school "bad people" is over the top attention-getting behavior. But Prof. Putnam decries a "radically shriveled sense of 'we.'" Does that comment really have no application to this conversation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-58939770158410510912013-09-23T00:03:01.606-04:002013-09-23T00:03:01.606-04:00I'm not sure she was joking. I have some well-...I'm not sure she was joking. I have some well-meaning neighbors and I have heard union-fanatic teachers say very similar things. It astonishes me to read someone with such a collectivist mentality and who has so much disdain for individual choice. But they are definitely out there...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-72577895704665914382013-09-05T21:00:29.769-04:002013-09-05T21:00:29.769-04:00I thought she was trolling for comments.
It'...I thought she was trolling for comments. <br /><br />It's an excellent example of what passes for journalism today. Authors that take extreme positions just to garner attention and provide entertainment. Mind you ... it worked on me since I read the article too!Invisible Handhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02680372478096503049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17206839.post-55307242103401081882013-06-07T11:18:02.295-04:002013-06-07T11:18:02.295-04:00All we need to know about the moral substance or e...All we need to know about the moral substance or ethic of David Brooks:<br /><br />http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9906E2DF1E39F932A25752C1A9659C8B63<br /><br />Avoid War Crimes <br /><br />To the Editor: <br /><br />In ''A Burden Too Heavy to Put Down,'' * David Brooks writes, ''Inevitably, there will be atrocities'' committed by our forces in Iraq. Did he forget to add that they must be prosecuted? <br /><br />War crimes are indeed more likely if influential commentators foreshadow impunity for perpetrators of the ''brutal measures our own troops will have to adopt.'' <br /><br />The choice is not between committing war crimes and retreating ''into the paradise of our own innocence.'' A third option is for the United States to strive to avoid complicity. <br /><br />It is untrue that ''we have to take morally hazardous action.'' Those who choose it, or urge others to, cannot evade or distribute responsibility by asserting that ''we live in a fallen world.'' <br /><br />* http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/04/opinion/04BROO.html<br /><br />BEN KIERNAN <br />New Haven, Nov. 4, 2003 <br />The writer is director of the Genocide Studies Program at Yale University.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com